An analysis of poverty persistence in Russia: 1994-2001
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In this paper, we analyse the household persistence of poverty in Russia with longitudinal data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, 1994-2001. We determine the major factors that cause a household to be long-term poor and examine if determinants of the chronic and the transient poverty status are different. We first consider the determinants of being poor with a random effects probit model. Then, building on the panel structure of the data, we consider a latent variable measuring the intensity of poverty. The observable counterpart variable is the number of times the household is poor in the survey. Using an ordered probit model, we compute an average probability of being once, twice, three times and more than four times poor conditional on the main specific characteristics of the household (age and education of husband and wife, family structure, region etc.). The socio-economic factors of persistent poverty are investigated and we pay a specific attention to the importance of family structure and spouse characteristics. To assess the robustness of the results several alternatives of poverty measurement are considered. They capture: 1. household well-being, measured by income or consumption; 2. absolute, relative and subjective poverty lines. This analysis is important for anti poverty policy implications. The philosophy of this
policy has to be shifted away from income supplementation for those currently poor towards providing routes out of poverty and preventing falls into poverty. With a situation of severely limited financial resources, the Russian social policy should be targeted towards the most vulnerable population of the longer-term poor.
JOUR
Kalungina, Ekaterina
Montmarquette, Claude
Sofer, Catherine
2004
Univeristy of Paris Higher School of Economics WP
1317
