What accounts for the emergence of Malthusian rertility in transition economies?

Micevska, Maja Branko; & Zak, Paul J. (2002). What accounts for the emergence of Malthusian rertility in transition economies? Claremont Institute for Economic Policy Studies WP No. 2002-01. Claremont McKenna College.

Citation:

Micevska, Maja Branko; & Zak, Paul J. (2002). What accounts for the emergence of Malthusian rertility in transition economies? Claremont Institute for Economic Policy Studies WP No. 2002-01. Claremont McKenna College.

Citation Export File (RIS Format):
Octet Stream icon

1544.ris — Octet Stream, 1 kB (1495 bytes)

Abstract:

The transition to market-oriented economies in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union in the 1990s, like the Great Depression in the U.S. and Germany in the 1930s, generated sharp declines in real incomes and a corresponding drop in fertility. This is contrary to the robust negative relationship between income and fertility that has been extensively documented. This paper presents a theoretical model that explains the positive relationship between fertility and income. The model predicts that: i) the perceived level of subsistence consumption fundamentally determines whether fertility and income are positively or negatively related; ii) once incomes decline below a threshold, declining labor income causes fertility to fall; and iii) rising income inequality has a negative impact on fertility rates. Empirical tests using both aggregate and microeconomic data provide strong support for the predictions of the model. Our empirics predict that the perceived subsistence level is a statistically significant determinant of fertility and that the average country in our sample will remain in a Mathusian fertility regime for twenty more years.

URL:

http://hdl.handle.net/10419/31450

Keyword(s):

Notes:

Reference Type:
RPRT

Secondary Title:
Claremont Institute for Economic Policy Studies WP No. 2002-01

Series Title:

Author(s):
Micevska, Maja Branko
Zak, Paul J.

Editor(s):

Series Author(s):

Year Published:
2002

Date Published:

Journal Name:

Volume Number:

Issue Number:

Start Page Number:

End Page Number:

Edition:

Series Volume:

Publisher:
Claremont McKenna College

City of Publication:

ISSN/ISBN:

DOI:

PMCID:

NIHMSID:

Reference ID:
1544

Miscellaneous:

Personal tools

What accounts for the emergence of Malthusian rertility in transition economies?