Are the young more pro-redistribution? Age and cohort effects on preferences for redistribution - theory and evidence from ESS 2009
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In this dissertation, we propose a study of age and cohort effects on the preferences for re-distribution. We present a two-periods-model in which we will look at the potential effects of uncertainty while entering adult life on the intensity of preferences for redistribution. We find that even highly educated young have a non null preferred tax rate because of the insurance effect. For this reason, we surmise that the young will support more redistribution than their elderly. We propose two extensions of this model illustrating hypothesis on the impact of institutional innovations on this age effect : (i) a disposal backing the first period of entry on the job market, and (ii) imperfect information on talents’ rewarding in the society. These extensions make us presume that the over-optimism effect may dominate the insurance effect. We provide then an empirical evaluation using the ESS no4 survey of the year 2008/9, an
European data set, to answer the following question : could there exist uniform age/cohort effects on the formation of preferences for redistribution ? We present pooled and separate studies of cohort effects on six specific countries. Using OLS regressions, we show that the intensity of preferences increases with age. Our results suggest that the differential of preferences between the young and the old is reduced when we consider countries where people estimate the job opportunities for the young to be bad. We conclude then than socioeconomic conditions of the young are more relevant to understand preferences for redistribution than uniform conflict of interests between generations.
THES
Department of Economics
Van Effenterre, Clementine
Piketty, Thomas
2011
Master Analyse et Politique Economique
Paris School of Economics
Paris
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